From Probability to Profit: How to Calculate Your PWin and Pursue Winnable Bids

Wouldn’t it be great to know your chances of winning an RFP? While you may not have a crystal ball, there is a calculation that can help you make an accurate prediction. It’s called your PWin score.

By calculating PWin, you can make a data-driven decision about whether an RFP is worth your time and resources before you craft a response. This insight enables you to focus on opportunities with the highest likelihood of success while reducing the risk of pursuing low-probability bids.

In this article, we’ll guide you through the formula for calculating PWin using a practical example. Plus, we’ll share effective strategies to increase your chances of winning.

PWin, or Probability of Win, is a metric that helps you evaluate your chances of winning an RFP by considering a weighted combination of key factors. Essentially, it eliminates the guesswork in deciding whether to participate in a competitive bidding process, such as a government contract.

While there isn’t a one-size-fits-all formula, a common approach involves scoring the key factors that influence your likelihood of success and combining them to calculate an overall PWin score.

A good PWin score typically varies depending on your industry, the competitiveness of the RFP, and the maturity of your proposal process. But generally:

👍 Scores above 70% are a great sign—you’re in a strong position to win.

👌 Scores between 50-70% suggest you’ve got a decent shot, but it’s a good idea to understand your return on investment (ROI) before diving in.

👎 Scores below 50% typically point to tough competition, and you might want to reconsider investing significant time and resources into that proposal.

Ultimately, a “good” PWin score is one that aligns with your goals, resources, and the specific RFP at hand, which we’ll dig into more below.

Now that you’re familiar with what PWin stands for (yet another proposal acronym to add to your growing list), let’s break down the formula into a simple five-step calculation.

Before you whip out a calculator, it’s important to first identify the key factors that influence your chance of winning. Begin by listing the elements that have contributed to your success in the past, and organize them alphabetically for easy reference in the calculation later. These might include:

(A) Customer fit: How well your solution aligns with the customer’s needs.

(B) Competitive edge: How your offering compares to competitors.

(C) Past performance: Your success on similar projects.

(D) Customer relationship: The strength of your relationship with the client.

(E) Pricing: Whether your pricing is attractive and feasible for the client.

If you already have clearly defined RFP evaluation criteria (a set of requirements that help you qualify opportunities before responding to them), you can use it as your starting point.

Next, assign a level of importance to each factor you’ve identified using a weighted scoring system. This ensures that the most critical elements carry the greatest influence in your PWin calculation.

For example, if you’re the incumbent, you might assign more weight to “customer relationship” since your proven track record and existing rapport with the client gives you a significant advantage. Your weighted scoring system would look something like this:

• (A) Customer fit: 0.25 (or 25%)
• (B) Competitive edge: 0.15 (or 15%)
• (C) Past performance: 0.20 (or 20%)
• (D) Customer relationship: 0.30 (or 30%)
• (E) Pricing: 0.10 (or 10%)

Ensure the total of all weights adds up to 1 (or 100%). Adjust these weights based on the specific opportunity, prioritizing the factors that will have the greatest impact on your chances of success.

After assigning weights, score each factor on a consistent scale, such as 1–10, based on how well your business performs in that area for the specific RFP. For example:

• (A) Customer Fit: 9 (Strong alignment with requirements)
• (B) Competitive Edge: 7 (Moderately better than competitors)
• (C) Past Performance: 8 (Good track record on similar projects)
• (D) Customer Relationship: 6 (Limited engagement with key decision-makers)
• (E) Pricing: 5 (Slightly higher than expected budget)

Remember to stay as objective as possible. Base your scores on measurable evidence, such as historical data, customer feedback, or competitive insights. And be mindful not to overestimate your strengths or underestimate your weaknesses, as this could skew your PWin calculation.

Using the calculation above, you can now see your likelihood of winning.

PWin=(9×0.25)+(7×0.15)+(8×0.20)+(6×0.30)+(5×0.10)

The calculated PWin is 7.2 out of 10, or 72%, indicating a moderate likelihood of success.

Your PWin score may change as you receive new information or encounter unpredictable events. For example, you might learn more about the client’s priorities or a new competitor might show up fashionably late. Each of these factors can impact your scores or the weights you’ve assigned.

So, make it a habit to revisit your PWin calculation throughout the proposal process. This ensures your decisions remain data-driven and aligned with the most current information, helping you allocate resources effectively and focus on opportunities with the highest potential for success.

This PWin calculator approach provides a clear, data-driven assessment of your chances of winning, helping you make a well-informed go/no-go decision on whether to bid on the project.

An accurate PWin score isn’t something you can pull out of thin air. It’s the result of critical analysis, unbiased judgment, and lessons learned. Here’s how to ensure your calculation is on the mark:

✓ Use historical data: Conduct a win/loss analysis to identify the key factors that drive success. This insight will also help you adjust your weights based on what matters most to different clients.

✓ Get input from all angles: PWin isn’t a solo calculation. Bring in voices from business development, capture management, and technical teams to get a well-rounded view of the RFP opportunity.

✓ Research the competition: Knowing who your competitors are is just the start. You also need to analyze their strengths, weaknesses, and positioning to gauge how you measure up.

✓ Chat with sales: Their sales conversations can provide insight into a customer’s needs and where you stand as a contender. The more you tap into this knowledge, the more accurate your score will be.

✓ Compare to your win rate: Use your RFP win rate as a benchmark. If your PWin deviates too far from your win rate for a particular industry, your scoring might be too optimistic or too cautious.

The above best practices can help you fine-tune your PWin calculation and make smarter go/no-go decisions. But remember, your score is just the start—execution is what ultimately drives success.

At the end of the day, PWin is just a number—calculated based on a combination of factors that reflect your likelihood of winning an RFP. While a strong score can boost your confidence, it’s up to you and your team to take action. Let’s uncover 4 ways you can turn your score into a win:

A PWin score is a valuable indicator of your chances, but it’s the execution that matters most. This is where strategy and efficiency makes all the difference—transforming potential into reality.

When you align your efforts with your calculated chances, you empower your team to focus on the right opportunities. This data-driven approach leads to smarter decision-making, optimized resource allocation, and, ultimately, a higher win rate as you consistently pursue RFPs that are within your reach.

The key is to make your PWin score a central part of your proposal process, using it as a guide to prioritize high-value bids and streamline your efforts. With the right math and response strategy, you’ll be well on your way to predicting your success and achieving it.